By Courtney Kibblewhite, Northern Broadcasting
Montana could see a more active summer storm pattern this year, but drought conditions and wildfire concerns remain major challenges heading into the growing season, according to meteorologist Eric Snodgrass during Thursday’s edition of Voices of Montana.
Snodgrass, senior science fellow with Nutrien Ag Solutions, joined guest host Courtney Kibblewhite to discuss Montana’s unusually warm winter, the summer weather outlook and the ongoing drought affecting much of the state.
Warm Winter Reduced Snowpack
According to Snodgrass, much of Montana experienced one of its warmest winters on record. Livingston and Sheridan recorded their warmest winters historically, while Billings, Baker and Miles City ranked among their warmest as well.
Snodgrass said the warm conditions contributed to reduced snowpack and early snowmelt across the West.
“We melted a lot of snow early,” Snodgrass said. “That’s just the wrong time. We’d rather have all that happen later in the season.”
Most of Montana Remains in Drought
Snodgrass said drought remains a serious concern statewide, with 87% of Montana currently experiencing some level of drought. More than 30% of the state is classified in severe drought, while roughly 5% is considered to be in exceptional drought conditions.
Despite the dry conditions, Snodgrass said long-range weather models currently suggest Montana may experience near-normal to wetter-than-normal conditions this summer, increasing the likelihood of thunderstorms and severe weather activity.
“It looks like it’s going to be stormy,” Snodgrass said, noting the forecast includes the potential for hail, strong winds and localized severe storms.
El Niño Could Moderate Summer Heat
Snodgrass said the developing El Niño weather pattern could help prevent extended periods of extreme summer heat.
“The current forecast for Montana this summer does not show long stretches of excessive heat,” he said. “Historically, El Niño patterns tend to moderate temperatures.”
He added that historical weather analogs point toward a more active storm season rather than prolonged heat waves.
Fire Risk Remains a Concern
Despite hopes for additional moisture, Snodgrass warned that rapid snowmelt earlier this spring could contribute to elevated wildfire danger later in the season.
“My worry is that you probably have some decent vegetative growth early in the season, and that’s going to become the tinder for summer fire weather,” Snodgrass said.
Meteorologists across the West continue to monitor fire conditions as the region moves closer to summer.
Dry Pattern Expected to Continue Short-Term
Looking ahead over the next 10 days, Snodgrass said much of central and eastern Montana is expected to remain relatively dry. He noted some parts of the state could have a greater than 95% chance of receiving less than one-half inch of precipitation during that period.
“We need to break this drought situation,” Snodgrass said. “We’re going to be waiting until later in May and June before this pattern becomes more active and brings more routine thunderstorms.”
Forecasting Montana Weather Remains Challenging
The conversation also touched on the challenges of forecasting weather in Montana, which Snodgrass described as one of the most difficult regions in the country for meteorologists because of its terrain, distance from major bodies of water and rapidly changing weather patterns.
Eric Snodgrass is a Senior Science Fellow with Nutrien Ag Solutions. See his daily forecasts at www.ag-wx.com.
